As strategic advisors to Coastal Partnership East (CPE), Moffatt & Nichol is supporting the transition towards a coast that is more resilient to climate change.
CPE wishes to commission a simulator of the Suffolk and Norfolk coast’s changing morphology for a range of management scenarios to support its Resilient Coasts innovation programme, which is funded through the UK Environment Agency’s Flood and Coastal Resilience Innovation Programme. The simulator will be used to test CPE’s concept of a ‘Circular Sediment Economy’ as part of the case for an adaptation funding mechanism to transition to a coast that is more resilient to climate change. CPE approached Moffatt & Nichol and Risk Policy Analysists to scope this work.
The Moffatt & Nichol team have drawn on their prior experience of regional modelling in this area and engaged with the British Geological Survey and University College London to scope the development of a morphological simulator.
The CPE coastal frontage is large and complex, and projections of its morphology are needed over many decades to understand the release, movement, and—ultimately—value of sediments. Our project team members recognise that simulating change at such scale is unlikely to be achievable with conventional approaches and have sought newer, emerging methods.
We have recommended that systems-based approaches be used, which focus on key features and interactions regulating coastal change, thus avoiding detailed modelling where it is not crucial. Recommendations have also been made on tools that can support such work, which were developed recently within the iCOASST research project. A three-stage progression has been proposed involving formal conceptualisation of the coastal system, assembly of a ‘static model’ of the critical data sets and dynamic modelling of its morphology.
Three phases are also recommended within the dynamic modelling to develop understanding and build consensus. Starting with localised models of representative typologies, followed by macro-scale and ‘broad-brush’ representations of the whole Suffolk–Norfolk system. Finally, a multi-scale model will couple the regional dynamics with local detail. These models will progressively inform the sediment valuation aspect of the study.
By quantifying sediment movement and the value of the role that it plays, it is hoped that investment decisions will better support communities exposed to erosion, ultimately accelerating the transition to increased coastal resilience.
